Evaluation and Modelling of the Performance of an Automated SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Assay According to Sample Type, Target Population and Epidemic Trends.

The Lumipulse® G SARS-CoV-2 Ag assay performance was evaluated on prospectively collected saliva and nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS) of recently ill in- and outpatients and according to the estimated viral load. Performances were calculated using RT-PCR positive NPS from patients with symptoms ≤ 7 days and RT-PCR negative NPS as gold standard. In addition, non-selected positive NPS were analyzed to assess the performances on various viral loads. This assay yielded a sensitivity of 93.1% on NPS and 71.4% on saliva for recently ill patients. For NPS with a viral load > 103 RNA copies/mL, sensitivity was 96.4%. A model established on our daily routine showed fluctuations of the performances depending on the epidemic trends but an overall good negative predictive value. Lumipulse® G SARS-CoV-2 assay yielded good performance for an automated antigen detection assay on NPS. Using it for the detection of recently ill patients or to screen high-risk patients could be an interesting alternative to the more expensive RT-PCR.

Analysis of Emergency Department Visits and Hospital Activity during Influenza Season, COVID-19 Epidemic, and Lockdown Periods in View of Managing a Future Disaster Risk: A Multicenter Observational Study.

ED-visits and through-ED admissions to medical/surgical wards (MSW) and intensive care unit (ICU) during influenza, COVID-19 and lockdown periods were evaluated in a four-hospital prospective observational study from November 2018 to March 2020. ED visit characteristics and main diagnostic categories were assessed. Analysis of 368,262 ED-visits highlighted a significantly increasing trend in ED-visits during influenza followed by a significantly decreasing trend after lockdown. For MSW-admissions, a pattern of growth during influenza was followed by a fall that began during COVID-19 pandemic and intensified during the lockdown. For ICU-admissions, a significant rise during the COVID-19 pandemic was followed by diminution during the lockdown period. During lockdown, significantly diminishing trends were shown for all diagnostic categories (between -40.8% and -73.6%), except influenza-like illness/COVID cases (+31.6%), Pulmonary embolism/deep vein thrombosis (+33.5%) and frequent users (+188.0%). The present study confirms an increase in demand during the influenza epidemic and during the initial phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, but a drop in activity during the lockdown, mainly related to non-COVID conditions. Syndromic surveillance of ILI cases in ED is a tool for monitoring influenza and COVID-19, and it can predict ED activity and the need for MSW and ICU beds.

COVID-19 Preparedness Among Emergency Departments: A Cross-Sectional Study in France.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate hospital and emergency department (ED) preparedness in France facing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapid growth epidemic-phase, and to determine the link between preparedness and responsiveness. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, from March 7 to March 11, 2020, all heads of ED departments in France were contacted to answer an electronic survey, including 23 questions. Quality, Organization, Training, Resources, Management, Interoperability, and Responsiveness were evaluated by calculating scores (10 points). Multivariate analysis of variance was used to compare scores. Spearman's correlation coefficient and multifaceted regression analysis were performed between Responsiveness and dimensions scores. RESULTS: A total of 287 of 636 French EDs were included (45.1%). Calculated scores showed (median): Quality 5.38; Organization 6.4; Training 4.6; Resources 4.13; Management 2.38; Interoperability 4.0; Responsiveness 6.25; seasonal influenza score was 5. Significant differences between scores as a function of hospital and ED main characteristics were found. Furthermore, we found significant correlations (P < 0.01) between Responsiveness and all preparedness dimensions. Organization (adjusted-R2 0.2897), Management (aR2 0.321), and Interoperability (aR2 0.422) were significantly associated with Responsiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Preparedness in all its dimensions is low, indicating vulnerability. Preparedness and responsiveness face a certain and ongoing risk are close linked, and that Organizational, Management, and Interoperability dimensions are main determinants.

A nomogram to predict the risk of unfavourable outcome in COVID-19: a retrospective cohort of 279 hospitalized patients in Paris area.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictive factors of unfavourable outcome among patients hospitalized for COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a monocentric retrospective cohort study of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Paris area. An unfavourable outcome was defined as the need for artificial ventilation and/or death. Characteristics at admission were analysed to identify factors predictive of unfavourable outcome using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Based on the results, a nomogram to predict 14-day probability of poor outcome was proposed. RESULTS: Between March 15th and April 14th, 2020, 279 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized after a median of 7 days after the first symptoms. Among them, 88 (31.5%) patients had an unfavourable outcome: 48 were admitted to the ICU for artificial ventilation, and 40 patients died without being admitted to ICU. Multivariable analyses retained age, overweight, polypnoea, fever, high C-reactive protein, elevated us troponin-I, and lymphopenia as risk factors of an unfavourable outcome. A nomogram was established with sufficient discriminatory power (C-index 0.75), and proper consistence between the prediction and the observation. CONCLUSION: We identified seven easily available prognostic factors and proposed a simple nomogram for early detection of patients at risk of aggravation, in order to optimize clinical care and initiate specific therapies. KEY MESSAGES Since novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, a minority of patients develops severe respiratory distress syndrome, leading to death despite intensive care. Tools to identify patients at risk in European populations are lacking. In our series, age, respiratory rate, overweight, temperature, C-reactive protein, troponin and lymphocyte counts were risk factors of an unfavourable outcome in hospitalized adult patients. We propose an easy-to-use nomogram to predict unfavourable outcome for hospitalized adult patients to optimize clinical care and initiate specific therapies.

Applicability of the CURB-65 pneumonia severity score for outpatient treatment of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: The CURB-65 is a severity score to predict mortality secondary to community acquired pneumonia and is widely used to identify patients who can be managed as outpatients. However, whether CURB-65 can be applicable to COVID-19 patients for the decision of outpatient treatment is still unknown. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective single-centre study assessing the performance of the CURB-65 to predict the risk of poor outcome, defined as the need for mechanical ventilation and/or death, among patients hospitalized for COVID-19. The association between the CURB-65 and the outcome was assessed by a univariable Cox proportional hazard regression model. RESULTS: A total of 279 patients were hospitalized between March 15th and April 14th, 2020. According to the CURB-65, 171 (61.3%) patients were considered at low risk (CURB-65 01), 66 (23.7%) at intermediate risk (CURB-65=2), and 42 (15.1%) had high risk of 30-day mortality (CURB-65 35). During the study period, 88 (31.5%) patients had a poor outcome. The CURB-65 was strongly associated with a poor outcome (Pfor linear trend <0.001). However, among patients with a CURB-65 of 01, thus considered at low risk, 36/171 (21.1%) had a poor outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that the applicability of CURB-65 to guide the decision of inpatient or outpatient care is scarce, as it does not safely identify patients who could be managed as outpatients.